AMIA’s crop forecast gives visibility of the timing, volume and flow of the mango crop across all varieties and growing regions to the entire supply chain from pallet and packaging suppliers to retailers, wholesalers and labour hire providers. This insight allows the industry to understand supply and better plan for the highs and lows that may occur throughout the season. Such data is also vital for wholesalers and retailers at the large southern markets, as an awareness of the seasonal flow will influence their planning of marketing and promotional campaigns.
With good forward planning, fruit entering the market can be moved quickly during peak periods, minimising the lowering of prices for farmers and maintaining good quality fruit for consumers. Understanding the forecast means growers can also estimate the start of harvest well in advance, which enables better planning of harvesting logistics and marketing strategies.
The 2019/2020 season forecast saw an expansion to include information about the volume of Class 1 or premium fruit and Class 2 (and below) fruit being dispatched. This market feedback can assist growers when they are making decisions, such as whether to send Class 2 or bulk fruit to market.
The forecasted volumes one week out were 10% higher than actual dispatches the following week. The comparison of the forecast one week before and the actual dispatch data is highlighted in the graph below. Forecasted volumes were higher than expected at the start of the season. This increase was a result of cold weather delaying the onset of harvest, which forced growers to do multiple select picks. The fruit during this season was skewed to small sizes (>16) and the extended cold period resulted in high levels of green skin.
There was a peak in volumes during the week ending on the 8th November (Week 19) which was forecasted for the following week in our forecast. There was another peak in early December (Week 23) that was not predicted. As the forecasting process continues to evolve, we are working with growers and suppliers to update data regularly and improve the accuracy of this data. 2019/20 was also the first season that the forecast included Class 1 and 2. This information was introduced to assist growers with their decisions on sending Class 2 (and lower) fruit to market and to improve visibility for retailers and wholesalers about what fruit was entering the marketplace.
As noted in the table here, the accuracy of the mango industry forecast is improving each season to capture an increasing percentage of the total levy data. This improved accuracy is a direct result of increased grower participation and engagement, as well as the increasing frequency of forecast updates before and during the harvest season.
|
SEASON |
MANGO LEVY DATA |
INDUSTRY FORECAST |
% CAPTURED BY INDUSTRY FORECAST |
|
2014/2015 |
9,497,488 |
8,529,150 |
90 |
|
2015/2016 |
8,888,820 |
6,107,692 |
69 |
|
2016/2017 |
8,637,958 |
6,262,277 |
72 |
|
2017/2018 |
11,996,646 |
8,955,936 |
75 |
|
2018/2019 |
10,958,401 |
9,495,228 |
87 |
|
2019/2020 |
10,743,384 |
8,899,960 |
83 |
The forecast consists of data collected from growers and packhouses via a text message system for the previous week. An initial forecast is provided before the season but is updated regularly throughout the season. This information is then collated and published on Tuesdays through the e-newsletter, My Mango. The 2021/20 season is the first year that the forecast is published with a graphic representation of the crop flow and a line to indicate volumes per week from last season as a comparison as seen below.
Growers can get involved by contacting their Industry Development Officer. Some growers’ information is already received from their packhouse, marketer or logistics partner. The crop flow report can be found on our website under the Reports section, or you can also subscribe to our weekly My Mango newsletter to stay up-to-date.